What is the Global Crisis Index?

A weekly 0–100 composite of systemic financial fragility built from 36 free public indicators across seven pillars (credit, macro, valuation, housing, crypto, sentiment, geopolitics). Higher means more dry tinder is stacked under the global economy.

Does the index predict crashes?

No. It measures how fragile conditions are — how much fuel is stacked — not when a shock strikes. Every historical crisis is graded in public on the scorecard, misses included.

How often is it updated?

The official print is published every Friday at 20:00 UTC from all 36 indicators at their weekly close. Between prints a live Pulse tracks market moves in real time.

Where does the data come from?

Free, public sources only: FRED, the OFR Financial Stress Index, ECB CISS, CBOE, the NY Fed, NBER, Caldara–Iacoviello GPR, the EPU index, DefiLlama and Coin Metrics.

58.2

ELEVATED

plausible range 55.9 – 60.5

1.8 pts below High-Stress

How much dry tinder is stacked under the global economy, in one number.

A 0–100 score of how fragile the financial system is — the fuel, not the match.

Direction

—

over the last 13 weeks

Historical rank

—

since 1990

Correlation regime

—

across the seven pillars

Where crashes began

—

historically, fragility crises started with the gauge inside this range

The trend

—

Pillar	Weight	Score	Contribution	As of
Credit & liquidity	25%	51	12.75	today 14:32 UTC
Macro cycle	20%	59	11.80	today 12:30 UTC
Valuation & froth	15%	79	11.85	Aug print
Housing	10%	44	4.40	Aug print
Crypto	10%	64	6.40	live
Sentiment	10%	49	4.90	today 14:31 UTC
Geopolitics	10%	61	6.10	carrying last value since Tue
GCI			58.20

The Pulse

live nowcast between prints — breathing at market tempo

— GCI PULSE

BREATHING 12/MIN

The needle answers real markets — Bitcoin around the clock; credit, volatility and rates whenever exchanges trade. Nothing here is decorative: every movement traces to a market event, and the halo breathes at the market's own tempo — slow on quiet days, faster as stress builds. How it works.

Seven pillars

tap a pillar for what it measures — and what would make it fall

What changed this week

every input that moved the index

Three decades of stress

reconstructed GCI, 1997 – today · hover to inspect

Case files

every crisis, opened and studied — not doomscrolled