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     "stale": true
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    {
     "key": "stables",
     "label": "Stablecoin supply 13-wk (stall = risk)",
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     "asof": "2026-09-04",
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     "live": true,
     "stale": false
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     "stale": false
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     "stale": false
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    {
     "key": "em_stress",
     "label": "OFR emerging-market stress",
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     "stale": false
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    {
     "key": "adv_stress",
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     "stale": false
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     "key": "epu",
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     "live": true,
     "stale": false
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     "key": "oil",
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     "live": true,
     "stale": false
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   2024.6434,
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   2024.8542,
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   2024.9117,
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   2024.9309,
   59.7
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   2024.95,
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   2024.9692,
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   2024.9884,
   60.5
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   2025.0055,
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   2025.0246,
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   2025.0438,
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   2025.063,
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   2025.0821,
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   2025.1013,
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   2025.1205,
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   2025.1396,
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   2025.1588,
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   2025.2163,
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   2025.2355,
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   2025.2546,
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   2025.3696,
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   2025.4654,
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   2025.4846,
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   2025.5229,
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   2025.5421,
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   2025.5613,
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   2025.5804,
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   2025.7721,
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   2025.8679,
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   2025.8871,
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   2025.9062,
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   2025.9254,
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   2025.9446,
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   2025.9637,
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   2025.9829,
   56.8
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   2026.0027,
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   2026.0219,
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   2026.0411,
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   2026.0602,
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   2026.0794,
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   2026.0986,
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   2026.1177,
   58.0
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   2026.1369,
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   2026.1561,
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   2026.1752,
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   2026.1944,
   59.0
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   2026.2136,
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   2026.2327,
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   2026.2519,
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   2026.271,
   59.2
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   2026.2902,
   58.4
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   2026.3094,
   58.3
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   2026.3285,
   57.9
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   2026.3477,
   57.3
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   2026.3669,
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   2026.386,
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   2026.4052,
   55.8
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   2026.4244,
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   2026.4435,
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   2026.4627,
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   2026.4819,
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   2026.501,
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   2026.5202,
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   2026.5394,
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   2026.5777,
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 ],
 "events": [
  [
   1990.7775,
   "Gulf War '90",
   57.3
  ],
  [
   1998.7885,
   "LTCM",
   69.7
  ],
  [
   2002.794,
   "Dot-com",
   67.5
  ],
  [
   2008.794,
   "Lehman",
   63.7
  ],
  [
   2011.6105,
   "Euro debt",
   44.3
  ],
  [
   2018.95,
   "Q4 2018",
   45.6
  ],
  [
   2020.1971,
   "COVID",
   51.5
  ],
  [
   2022.783,
   "2022 bear",
   61.9
  ],
  [
   2022.8789,
   "FTX",
   63.3
  ]
 ],
 "events_all": [
  {
   "t": 1990.7775,
   "key": "early90s",
   "short": "Gulf War '90",
   "name": "Early-1990s Recession / Gulf War Bear",
   "v": 57.3,
   "badge": "BEAR + NBER RECESSION",
   "dd": -19.9,
   "vix": 36.5,
   "nber": true,
   "window": "1990-07 \u2013 1991-03",
   "desc": "Iraq's invasion of Kuwait spiked oil while the US slipped into recession; S&P 500 \u221219.9% in 87 days. A genuine credit crunch (NFCI 0.52).",
   "fact": "EARLY-1990S RECESSION / GULF WAR BEAR \u00b7 S&P -19.9% \u00b7 VIX 36.5",
   "kind": "shock"
  },
  {
   "t": 1997.7912,
   "key": "asia97",
   "short": "Asia '97",
   "name": "Asian Financial Crisis",
   "v": 52.9,
   "badge": "CORRECTION",
   "dd": -10.8,
   "vix": 38.2,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "1997-07 \u2013 1998-01",
   "desc": "East Asian currency collapses culminated in the Oct 27, 1997 mini-crash: Dow \u22127.2%, first-ever NYSE circuit breakers.",
   "fact": "ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS \u00b7 S&P -10.8% \u00b7 VIX 38.2",
   "kind": "shock"
  },
  {
   "t": 1998.7885,
   "key": "ltcm98",
   "short": "LTCM",
   "name": "Russia Default / LTCM Crisis",
   "v": 69.7,
   "badge": "BEAR",
   "dd": -19.3,
   "vix": 45.7,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "1998-07 \u2013 1998-10",
   "desc": "Russia's Aug 1998 default plus the LTCM collapse dislocated credit and swap markets worldwide; a NY Fed-brokered rescue stabilized markets.",
   "fact": "RUSSIA DEFAULT / LTCM CRISIS \u00b7 S&P -19.3% \u00b7 VIX 45.7",
   "kind": "fragility"
  },
  {
   "t": 2002.794,
   "key": "dotcom",
   "short": "Dot-com",
   "name": "Dot-Com Bust",
   "v": 67.5,
   "badge": "SEVERE BEAR + NBER RECESSION",
   "dd": -49.1,
   "vix": 45.1,
   "nber": true,
   "window": "2000-03 \u2013 2002-10",
   "desc": "The tech bubble burst March 2000: S&P 500 \u221249.1% over 929 days, Nasdaq \u221277.9%. The S&P did not regain its peak until 2007.",
   "fact": "DOT-COM BUST \u00b7 S&P -49.1% \u00b7 VIX 45.1",
   "kind": "fragility"
  },
  {
   "t": 2001.7009,
   "key": "sept11",
   "short": "9/11",
   "name": "9/11 Market Shock",
   "v": 72.4,
   "badge": "CORRECTION + NBER RECESSION",
   "dd": -11.6,
   "vix": 49.4,
   "nber": true,
   "window": "2001-09 \u2013 2001-10",
   "desc": "The attacks closed US markets four days, the longest halt since 1933; \u221211.6% over the reopening week, recovered within a month.",
   "fact": "9/11 MARKET SHOCK \u00b7 S&P -11.6% \u00b7 VIX 49.4",
   "kind": "shock"
  },
  {
   "t": 2008.794,
   "key": "gfc08",
   "short": "Lehman",
   "name": "Global Financial Crisis / Lehman",
   "v": 63.7,
   "badge": "SEVERE BEAR + NBER RECESSION + LV SYSTEMIC",
   "dd": -56.8,
   "vix": 80.9,
   "nber": true,
   "window": "2007-10 \u2013 2009-03",
   "desc": "Subprime collapse and the Sep 15, 2008 Lehman bankruptcy: S&P 500 \u221256.8% over 517 days; VIX record close 80.86; OFR FSI all-time high 29.32. IMF-classified US systemic banking crisis 2007\u20132011.",
   "fact": "GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS / LEHMAN \u00b7 S&P -56.8% \u00b7 VIX 80.9",
   "kind": "fragility"
  },
  {
   "t": 2010.3641,
   "key": "flash10",
   "short": "Flash Crash",
   "name": "Flash Crash / First Greek Crisis",
   "v": 40.8,
   "badge": "CORRECTION",
   "dd": -16.0,
   "vix": 45.8,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2010-04 \u2013 2010-07",
   "desc": "May 6, 2010: amid Greek-default fears an algorithmic sell program erased ~$1T intraday; broader European-debt correction \u221216%.",
   "fact": "FLASH CRASH / FIRST GREEK CRISIS \u00b7 S&P -16.0% \u00b7 VIX 45.8",
   "kind": "shock"
  },
  {
   "t": 2011.6105,
   "key": "euro11",
   "short": "Euro debt",
   "name": "US Downgrade / Euro Debt Crisis",
   "v": 44.3,
   "badge": "BEAR",
   "dd": -19.4,
   "vix": 48.0,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2011-05 \u2013 2011-10",
   "desc": "S&P's first-ever US sovereign downgrade plus Italian/Spanish debt fears: Black Monday Aug 8, 2011 saw the S&P \u22126.66%.",
   "fact": "US DOWNGRADE / EURO DEBT CRISIS \u00b7 S&P -19.4% \u00b7 VIX 48.0",
   "kind": "shock"
  },
  {
   "t": 2015.616,
   "key": "china15",
   "short": "China '15",
   "name": "China Devaluation Scare",
   "v": 40.1,
   "badge": "CORRECTION",
   "dd": -14.2,
   "vix": 40.7,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2015-06 \u2013 2016-02",
   "desc": "China's surprise yuan devaluation: Aug 24, 2015 the S&P plunged up to 5.3% intraday; extended by the early-2016 oil/EM rout.",
   "fact": "CHINA DEVALUATION SCARE \u00b7 S&P -14.2% \u00b7 VIX 40.7",
   "kind": "shock"
  },
  {
   "t": 2018.1259,
   "key": "volmageddon",
   "short": "Volmageddon",
   "name": "Volmageddon",
   "v": 45.1,
   "badge": "CORRECTION",
   "dd": -10.2,
   "vix": 37.3,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2018-01 \u2013 2018-02",
   "desc": "Feb 5, 2018: the VIX's largest-ever one-day jump (+115%); short-volatility products destroyed (XIV \u221297% in a day).",
   "fact": "VOLMAGEDDON \u00b7 S&P -10.2% \u00b7 VIX 37.3",
   "kind": "fragility"
  },
  {
   "t": 2018.95,
   "key": "q42018",
   "short": "Q4 2018",
   "name": "Q4 2018 Selloff",
   "v": 45.6,
   "badge": "BEAR",
   "dd": -19.8,
   "vix": 36.1,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2018-09 \u2013 2018-12",
   "desc": "Fed tightening, QT fears and the trade war: \u221219.8% to Christmas Eve \u2014 the worst December since 1931.",
   "fact": "Q4 2018 SELLOFF \u00b7 S&P -19.8% \u00b7 VIX 36.1",
   "kind": "shock"
  },
  {
   "t": 2019.6982,
   "key": "repo19",
   "short": "Repo '19",
   "name": "September 2019 Repo Spasm",
   "v": 50.6,
   "badge": "STRESS EVENT",
   "dd": -4.1,
   "vix": null,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2019-09 \u2013 2019-10",
   "desc": "Overnight repo rates spiked to 10% as reserves ran scarce, forcing $75B NY Fed injections; acute money-market fragility exposed.",
   "fact": "SEPTEMBER 2019 REPO SPASM \u00b7 S&P -4.1%",
   "kind": "fragility"
  },
  {
   "t": 2020.1971,
   "key": "covid20",
   "short": "COVID",
   "name": "COVID-19 Crash",
   "v": 51.5,
   "badge": "SEVERE BEAR + NBER RECESSION",
   "dd": -33.9,
   "vix": 82.7,
   "nber": true,
   "window": "2020-02 \u2013 2020-04",
   "desc": "The fastest bear market on record: \u221233.9% in 33 days; VIX all-time record close 82.69; the shortest recession NBER ever dated.",
   "fact": "COVID-19 CRASH \u00b7 S&P -33.9% \u00b7 VIX 82.7",
   "kind": "shock"
  },
  {
   "t": 2022.3614,
   "key": "terra22",
   "short": "Terra",
   "name": "Terra/LUNA Collapse",
   "v": 57.8,
   "badge": "CORRECTION",
   "dd": -18.7,
   "vix": null,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2022-05 \u2013 2022-06",
   "desc": "The May 2022 TerraUSD death spiral cost crypto ~$18B that month and seeded the contagion (3AC, Celsius) that later felled FTX.",
   "fact": "TERRA/LUNA COLLAPSE \u00b7 S&P -18.7%",
   "kind": "fragility"
  },
  {
   "t": 2022.783,
   "key": "bear22",
   "short": "2022 bear",
   "name": "2022 Rate-Shock Bear Market",
   "v": 61.9,
   "badge": "BEAR",
   "dd": -25.4,
   "vix": 36.5,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2022-01 \u2013 2022-10",
   "desc": "The fastest Fed hiking cycle in four decades against generational inflation: \u221225.4% over nine months. No recession followed.",
   "fact": "2022 RATE-SHOCK BEAR MARKET \u00b7 S&P -25.4% \u00b7 VIX 36.5",
   "kind": "fragility"
  },
  {
   "t": 2022.8789,
   "key": "ftx22",
   "short": "FTX",
   "name": "FTX Collapse",
   "v": 63.3,
   "badge": "BEAR",
   "dd": -22.4,
   "vix": null,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2022-11 \u2013 2022-12",
   "desc": "FTX's bankruptcy wiped ~$200B more of crypto value, capping a 12-month $2.2T (\u221273%) collapse in total crypto capitalization.",
   "fact": "FTX COLLAPSE \u00b7 S&P -22.4%",
   "kind": "fragility"
  },
  {
   "t": 2023.2053,
   "key": "svb23",
   "short": "SVB",
   "name": "SVB / Regional Banking Crisis",
   "v": 59.9,
   "badge": "STRESS EVENT",
   "dd": -7.8,
   "vix": 26.5,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2023-03 \u2013 2023-05",
   "desc": "A $42B one-day run collapsed SVB \u2014 the second-largest US bank failure ever \u2014 followed by Signature and the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse. IMF: not systemic.",
   "fact": "SVB / REGIONAL BANKING CRISIS \u00b7 S&P -7.8% \u00b7 VIX 26.5",
   "kind": "fragility"
  },
  {
   "t": 2024.6242,
   "key": "yen24",
   "short": "Yen carry",
   "name": "Yen Carry-Trade Unwind",
   "v": 60.3,
   "badge": "STRESS EVENT",
   "dd": -8.5,
   "vix": 38.6,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2024-07 \u2013 2024-08",
   "desc": "A hawkish BOJ surprise forced a violent carry unwind on Aug 5, 2024: Nikkei \u221212.4% (worst day ever); VIX spiked to 65.7 intraday.",
   "fact": "YEN CARRY-TRADE UNWIND \u00b7 S&P -8.5% \u00b7 VIX 38.6",
   "kind": "shock"
  },
  {
   "t": 2025.293,
   "key": "tariff25",
   "short": "Tariffs '25",
   "name": "2025 Tariff Shock",
   "v": 61.7,
   "badge": "CORRECTION",
   "dd": -18.9,
   "vix": 52.3,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2025-02 \u2013 2025-04",
   "desc": "Sweeping tariffs announced Apr 2, 2025 triggered back-to-back \u22124.8% and \u22126.0% days; a 90-day pause ignited a 9.5% one-day rally.",
   "fact": "2025 TARIFF SHOCK \u00b7 S&P -18.9% \u00b7 VIX 52.3",
   "kind": "shock"
  },
  {
   "t": 2025.8679,
   "key": "ai25",
   "short": "AI scare",
   "name": "November 2025 AI-Valuation Scare",
   "v": 59.7,
   "badge": "STRESS EVENT",
   "dd": -5.1,
   "vix": 27.8,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2025-11",
   "desc": "Doubts about AI-capex returns hit megacap tech: \u22125.1% in three weeks; VIX up ~50% on the month. November still closed positive.",
   "fact": "NOVEMBER 2025 AI-VALUATION SCARE \u00b7 S&P -5.1% \u00b7 VIX 27.8",
   "kind": "fragility"
  },
  {
   "t": 2026.1944,
   "key": "iran26",
   "short": "Iran '26",
   "name": "March 2026 Iran War Selloff",
   "v": 59.0,
   "badge": "STRESS EVENT",
   "dd": -9.1,
   "vix": null,
   "nber": false,
   "window": "2026-02 \u2013 2026-03",
   "desc": "US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Strait-of-Hormuz fears drove Brent above $80; \u22129.1%, stopping just short of correction. New highs by summer.",
   "fact": "MARCH 2026 IRAN WAR SELLOFF \u00b7 S&P -9.1%",
   "kind": "shock"
  }
 ],
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  "RRPONTSYD": "ok (3317 obs, last 2026-09-01)",
  "M2SL": "ok (811 obs, last 2026-07-01)",
  "CSUSHPINSA": "ok (474 obs, last 2026-06-01)",
  "PERMIT": "ok (799 obs, last 2026-07-01)",
  "MORTGAGE30US": "ok (2892 obs, last 2026-08-27)",
  "DGS10": "ok (16151 obs, last 2026-08-31)",
  "VIXCLS": "ok (9264 obs, last 2026-09-01)",
  "DCOILBRENTEU": "ok (9963 obs, last 2026-08-25)",
  "DFII10": "ok (5920 obs, last 2026-08-31)",
  "NFCINONFINLEVERAGE": "ok (2904 obs, last 2026-08-28)",
  "NFCIRISK": "ok (2904 obs, last 2026-08-28)",
  "STLFSI4": "ok (1704 obs, last 2026-08-21)",
  "T10YIE": "ok (5921 obs, last 2026-09-01)",
  "DRTSCILM": "ok (146 obs, last 2026-07-01)",
  "OFR_FSI": "ok (6748 obs, last 2026-08-31)",
  "OFR_FUNDING": "ok (6748 obs, last 2026-08-31)",
  "OFR_SAFE": "ok (6748 obs, last 2026-08-31)",
  "OFR_EM": "ok (6748 obs, last 2026-08-31)",
  "OFR_ADV": "ok (6748 obs, last 2026-08-31)",
  "CISS_US": "ok (9573 obs, last 2026-08-28)",
  "CISS_EA": "ok (9573 obs, last 2026-08-28)",
  "VIX3M": "ok (4264 obs, last 2026-09-01)",
  "SKEW": "ok (9218 obs, last 2026-09-01)",
  "GPR": "ok (500 obs, last 2026-08-01)",
  "RECPROB": "ok (811 obs, last 2026-07-01)",
  "FUNDINGRATE": "FAILED: RuntimeError: curl exit 22 for https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/funding/history?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT&l",
  "STABLES": "ok (3200 obs, last 2026-09-02)",
  "TVL": "ok (3263 obs, last 2026-09-02)",
  "MVRV": "ok (5789 obs, last 2026-05-23)",
  "EPU": "ok (15219 obs, last 2026-09-01)",
  "CAPE": "ok (1867 obs, last 2026-09-01)"
 },
 "note": "Weekly composite; percentile method per design doc; pillars renormalize over available indicators; crypto active from ~2015."
}